Quick exits of subprime mortgages

All holders of mortgage contracts, regardless of type, have three options: keep their payments current, prepay (usually through refinancing), or default on the loan. The latter two options terminate the loan. The termination rates of subprime mortgages that originated each year from 2001 through 2006 are surprisingly similar: about 20, 50, and 80 percent, respectively, at one, two, and three years after origination. For loans originated when house prices appreciated the most, terminations were dominated by prepayments. For loans originated when the housing market slowed, defaults dominated. The similarity of the loan termination rates for all vintages in the sample suggests that subprime mortgage loans were intended to be "bridge" (i.e., temporary) loans. In addition, between 2001 and 2006, the number of terminated subprime purchase-money loans (loans used to purchase rather than refinance a house) outweighed the estimated number of first-time-homebuyers with subprime mortgages. The effect of the subprime lending on the increase of homeownership in the United States-a potentially positive outcome of subprime mortgages-most likely has been overstated.Subprime mortgage

Ten myths about subprime mortgages

On close inspection many of the most popular explanations for the subprime crisis turn out to be myths. Empirical research shows that the causes of the subprime mortgage crisis and its magnitude were more complicated than mortgage interest rate resets, declining underwriting standards, or declining home values. Nor were its causes unlike other crises of the past. The subprime crisis was building for years before showing any signs and was fed by lending, securitization, leveraging, and housing booms.Subprime mortgage

U.S. banking deregulation and self-employment: a differential impact on those in need

Starting in 1978, the U.S. banking sector was gradually deregulated in terms of restrictions on geographical expansion. This paper examines the impact of intrastate branching deregulation on (state-specific) self-employment income growth rate. If postreform changes in the banking structure led to improved lending to previously underserved (potential) businessmen, their self-employment income would accelerate, as banks are the prime source of finance for self-employment. Based on a simple model adopted from Evans and Jovanovic (1989), it is hypothesized that banking deregulation would particularly impact self-employment of discriminated against social groups. Consistent with the hypothesis, cross-state evidence suggests that the growth rate of self-employment income increased after reform, with the effect being more pronounced for women and non-white minorities at the low end of income distribution. Based on the obtained results, this paper suggests that more competitive banking environment after branching reform has mitigated prejudicial discrimination in lending. The analysis casts light on real effects of banking deregulation, on the effect of onsolidation in the banking sector on individuals targeted by the Equal Credit Opportunity (ECOA) and the Community Reinvestment Act (CRA), and on a function of competition in reducing discrimination.Bank supervision ; Banks and banking

Did credit scores predict the subprime crisis?

One would think that credit scores would be a predictor of who would default on a subprime mortgage. But that doesn't seem to be the case.Subprime mortgage ; Credit scoring systems

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several economics and operations research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults, as well as outlines of the methodologies used. We analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the US subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. The intent of the article is to promote future empirical research that might help to prevent bank failures and financial crises.financial crises; banking failures; operations research; early warning methods; leading indicators; subprime markets

Eighth District states weather the mortgage foreclosure storm

Foreclosure ; Mortgages ; Federal Reserve District, 8th

Financial crises and bank failures: a review of prediction methods

In this article we analyze financial and economic circumstances associated with the U.S. subprime mortgage crisis and the global financial turmoil that has led to severe crises in many countries. We suggest that the level of cross-border holdings of long-term securities between the United States and the rest of the world may indicate a direct link between the turmoil in the securitized market originated in the United States and that in other countries. We provide a summary of empirical results obtained in several Economics and Operations Research papers that attempt to explain, predict, or suggest remedies for financial crises or banking defaults; we also extensively outline the methodologies used in them. The intent of this article is to promote future empirical research for preventing financial crises.Subprime mortgage ; Financial crises

Gains from financial integration in the European union: evidence for new and old members

We estimate potential welfare gains from financial integration and corresponding better insurance against country-specific shocks to output (risk sharing) for the twenty-five European Union countries. Using theoretical utility-based measures we express the gains from risk sharing as the utility equivalent of a permanent increase in consumption. We report positive potential welfare gains for all the EU countries if they move toward full risk sharing. Ten country-members who joined the Union in 2004 have more volatile or counter-cyclical consumption and output and would obtain much higher potential gains than the longer-standing fifteen members.International finance ; European Union countries

U.S. Banking Deregulation, Small Businesses,and Interstate Insurance of Personal Income

We estimate the effects of deregulation of U.S. banking restrictions on the amount of interstate personal income insurance during the period 1970–2001. Interstate income insurance occurs when personal income reacts less than one-to-one to state-specific shocks to output. We find that income insurance improved after banking deregulation, and that this effect is larger in states where small businesses are more important. We further show that the impact of deregulation is stronger for proprietors’ income than other components of personal income. Our explanation of this result centers on the role of banks as a prime source of small business finance and on the close intertwining of the personal and business finances of small business owners. Our analysis casts light on the real effects of bank deregulation, on the insurance function of banks, and on the integration of bank markets.Financial deregulation, integration of bank markets, interstate risk shar-ing, small business finance.

FU.S. banking deregulation, small businesses, and interstate insurance of personal income

We estimate the effects of deregulation of U.S. banking restrictions on the amount of interstate personal income insurance during the period 1970–2001. Interstate income insurance occurs when personal income reacts less than one-to-one to state-specific shocks to output. We find that income insurance improved after banking deregulation, and that this effect is larger in states where small businesses are more important. We further show that the impact of deregulation is stronger for proprietors’ income than other components of personal income. Our explanation of this result centers on the role of banks as a prime source of small business finance and on the close intertwining of the personal and business finances of small business owners. Our analysis casts light on the real effects of bank deregulation, on the risk sharing function of banks, and on the integration of bank markets.Financial deregulation, integration of bank markets, interstate risk sharing, small business finance.